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This topic contains 61 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by  Bronco Bill 5 years, 2 months ago.

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    Yesterday turned out better than predicted.


    Friday, October 5, 2012.

    weather.com predicts WNW at 3 pm, WSW at 4 and 5 pm and West at 6 pm. We want SW, so decent for 4 and 5 pm.

    NOAA wind barbs indicate W surface wind at 10 knots at 5 pm. Not ideal, not totally bad.

    RASP 10 meter surface winds indicate WNW wind flow between 4 and 6 pm. Bad.

    Also considering the partly cloudy (less solar heating) afternoon forecast from weather.com that gives less chance for the local convection to straighten out the breeze.


    If you trust RASP, today should NOT be good for soaring in the late afternoon. If you mainly trust weather.com and NOAA, expect a 65% chance of soaring in the late afternoon.




    So it looks like for today (Friday) weather.com did come through, blowing WSW at of 5 pm (according to “right now” conditions in San Jacinto, and at my house 2 miles West of LZ). The switch from WNW to WSW happened about an hour later than predicted this morning. It is partly cloudy (as predicted), which is reducing the thermic activity, so maybe not easy to “bench up” from the lower launches.


    Saturday, October 6, 2012

    weather.com predicts WSW (we want SW) at 4 and 5 pm and partly cloudy, then W at 6pm.

    NOAA wind barbs predict W or WNW at 5pm.

    RASPpredicts WNW at 4 and 5 pm, then convergence upon us with WSW-SW at 6pm


    I give it a 50% chance of soaring in the late afternoon, relying/hoping that weather.com is correct. But “partly cloudy” skies reduce the local convection that “straightens out” the local breeze.


    Tomorrow is looking slightly better, thanks in part to full sunlight.


    Sunday, October 7, 2012.

    weather.com predicts WSW at 4 and 5 pm, then W at 6 pm. We want SW. Not bad if one launches between 4 and 5 pm. No clouds predicted so convection should also help straighten the breeze.

    NOAA wind barbs predict SW at 5 pm. Ideal.

    RASP predicts SW from 4 pm to 6 pm. Ideal.


    Overall, an good (80%) chance of soaring based on the above predictor tools.


    Thursday, October 11, 2012.

    Just based on the high probability of rain and T-storm (65% chance at 2 pm) this afternoon, paragliding would not be on my to-do list for this afternoon.

    Having said that, NOAA and RASP predict a favorable wind direction (SW) for late afternoon. Weather.com predicts WSW up to 4pm, W after.


    Weekend forecast for paragliding: Bad.

    Friday (tomorrow): weather.com predicts W and WNW (we want SW) late afternoon. Sunny starting at noon, but maybe trail maintenance will be needed if it rained significantly.

    After that (Saturday & Sunday) is the return of Santa Ana wind conditions (North wind).


    The good news: For the work party on Saturday, the max temperature will only be 81 F, and the predicted North wind will make you happy to be on the ground. Join me on this event to be remembered, so you can say “I helped doing this”.


    Friday, October 12 2012.  Iffy day…

    weather.com predicts WNW (we want SW) partly cloudy at 4 and 5 pm, W at 6 pm. Not good.

    NOAA wind barbs show generaly West at 5 pm. So-so.

    RASP is optimistic with SW surface winds at 4pm, but no data for 5 and 6 pm (broken for last few days).


    Overall, I give it a 25% chance of soaring late afternoon, based on varying wind predictions and that reduced convection (partly cloudy) will limit the convection breeze influence.


    Saturday does not look good at this time with weathe.com predicting WNW at 4 and 5 pm, NW at 6pm. We want SW. But great weather for the work party (sunny and 81 F max) starting at 10 am.

    Sunday looks bad for flying with Santa Ana winds.


    Saturday, October 13, 2012.

    Great conditions for the work party starting at 10 am

    weather.com predict a maximum temperature of 79 F, and winds from WNW (perfect for working, we do not want flyable SW winds to cause distractions). Only 10% chance of rain until 2pm and 0% after.

    NOAA wind barbs also predict a refreshing NW wind at 5 pm to eliminate any flying distractions.

    RASP predictor still broken for 5 and 6 pm, only indicating swirling winds at 4 pm.


    Come join this historic work party, you will be proud you did.




    Sunday, October 14, 2012

    weather.com predicts light North winds this afternon.

    NOAA wind brbs predicts East wind.

    RASP also predicts East wind. Thank you Alan for fixing the graphs for late afternoon (5 and 6 pm).

    ==> About 10% chance of soaring this late afternoon.


    Come join us at 9am as we continue the work party, with a likely completion today. Pictures from yesterday. Come be  part of history in the making.




    Monday, October 15, 2012

    weather.com and NOAA wind parbs are predicting W wind (we want SW) for late afternoon (4-5 pm). weather.com predicts WNW at 6pm. So not great, but not impossible.

    But RASP predicts East wind between 4 and 6 pm. Bad.

    I give it a 25% chance of soaring late afternoon.



    Do we trust XCSkies at all for wind direction at Soboba? Looks like it’s saying WSW 10 around 5PM today (Monday)…


    To Jeff: Maybe we should trust XCSkies. It did turn SW around 5:20 pm. A few out-of-town PG pilots launched from the 650′ launch, but did not gain altitude.

    But it was a perfect day for the training hill and the 200′ launch, for training.


    Tuesday, October 16, 2012.

    weather.com predicts NNW at 4 the WNW at 5 and 6 pm. Bad, we want SW.

    NOAAw ind barbs predicts WNW at 5 pm. Bad.

    RASP predicts E form 4 to 6 pm. Bad.


    I give it a 10% chance of soaring this late afternoon. If you are an optimist, the hope is that wind would be light and local heating/convection would produce an upslope breeze and not have a shear at the top of the mountain.


    Wednesday October 17, 2012

    weather.com predicts E and ENE in late afternoon. Bad.

    NOAA wind barbs predict E, and somewhat strong. Bad.

    RASP also predict E. Bad.


    So not a good day for soaring late afternoon at Soboba. The optimist can hope for a sledder before sunset, when thermal activity stops.

    High possibility of dust devils in the LZ today, and gusting winds.



    Thursday, October 18, 2012

    weather.com predicts near ideal conditions for soaring late afternoon: SW at 4 and 5 pm (7-8 mph) and WSW at 6 pm. Sunset is 6:09 pm.

    NOAA wind barbs also predicts SW, at 10 knots.

    RASP predicts SW to WSW, but with wind possibly strong at 5 and 6 pm.


    I give it an 80% chance of soaring this late afternoon.


    Long range: Friday, not so good with WNW predicted late afternoon. Saturday + Sunday: Promising with general SW wind flow predicted.


    Friday, October 19, 2012.

    Yesterday, all predictor websites were wrong. it just stayed NW all late afternoon. Today sunset at 6:08 pm and …

    weather.com predicts WNW all afternoon. We want SW.

    NOAA wind barbs show NW at 10 knots at 5 pm.

    RASP predicts a switch from WNW at 4pm to strong ENE at 5pm and 6 pm.


    10 % chance of soaring this late afternoon.


    Weekend: Cooling temperatures and possibly good wind direction. Small chance of rain.

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